Klimapanelets tause «innrømmelse» av kosmisk stråling

Data fra CLOUD har gjort det mulig å bygge en modell for aerosol produksjon som vil gi forskerne en større forståelse for årsaken til partikkeldannelser i troposfæren. Dette vil bidra til en "skjerping" av fremtidige klima spådommer

Data fra CLOUD har gjort det mulig å bygge en modell for aerosol produksjon som vil gi forskerne en større forståelse for årsaken til partikkeldannelser i troposfæren. Dette vil bidra til en «skjerping» av fremtidige klima spådommer

Etter et Fritt Nytt 24 begynte å grave i Klimapanelets holdning til CERNs forskning på kosmisk stråling som en nøkkelfaktor til forståelse av global oppvarming har en del nye opplysninger fremkommet. Presseansvarlig ved CERN, Sveits, Arnold Marsollier, har oversendt oppdateringer som viser at den danske fysikeren Henrik Svensmark’s teorier faktisk har vært gjenstand for gjennomgang og tolkning. Man har imidlertid konkludert med at Svensmark’s teorier har marginal betydning for den globale oppvarmingen men at mekanismen knyttet til kosmisk stråling, dannelsen av aerosolpartikler og skyer spiller en lite signifikant rolle selv om det er observert lokale utslag som betinget styrker teorien.

Det som imidlertid er verd å merke seg er at det i Klimapanelets femte og siste rapport, som Fritt Nytt 24 har fått oversendt fra CERN, ikke nevnes et ord om CERN og dets resultaters betydning for teorien. Man nevner utelukkende i rapportens konklusjon at «enkelte», deriblant Svensmark, har fremlagt slike teorier. Svensmark omtales i hovedrapportens kap. 7.4.6.1 og i kap. 7.4.6.2 (side 613) Klimapanelet foretrekker altså å basere sine konklusjoner og klima spådommer i all hovedsak på observasjoner mens vitenskapelig empirisk bevisførsel tones ned. Klimapanelet konkludere på følgende måte;

«Sammenhenger mellom kosmisk stråling og observerte aerosol eller sky egenskaper er svake og lokale i beste fall, og viser seg å ikke være robuste på regional eller global skala. Selv om det er noen bevis for at ionisering fra kosmisk stråling kan øke aerosol kjernedannelse i den frie troposfæren, er det middels bevis og høy enighet om at den kosmiske stråle-ioniserings mekanismen er for svak til å påvirke globale konsentrasjoner av CCN (Cloud Condensations Nuclei), eller «droplets», eller forandring av disse gjennom det siste århundret eller under solsyklusen, på noen klimatisk betydelig måte».

CERN på sin side tillegger imidlertid sin egen forskning et helt annet fokus. I følge informasjon Fritt Nytt 24 har fått oversendt fra CERN sentralt heter det;

«I følge IPCC er jordens middeltemperatur spådd å øke med mellom 1,5 og 4,5 grader C med en dobling av CO2 i atmosfæren. Noe som er forventet å skje innen 2050. En av hovedårsakene til dette store spennet i prediksjon, denne usikkerheten, som gjør det vanskelig for verdenssamfunnet å vite hvordan man skal forholde seg til klima endringene, er den dårlige forståelsen av areosol partikler i atmosfæren og dens innvirkning på skyer.

Fram til nå har alle klimamodeller operert med relativt enkle parametre for aerosol produksjon som ikke er basert på eksperimentelle data. Nå har man imidlertid, gjennom resultatene fra CLOUD prosjektet, gjort det mulig å lage en modell for aerosol produksjon som baserer seg utelukkende på laboratoriemålinger. Dette gir en mer robust forståelse av den kjerneprosessen som forårsaker en aerosol økning og det gir forskerne en mulighet til å fastslå hovedårsaken til nydannelsen av partikkelformasjoner i troposfæren. Noe som igjen vil gjøre det mulig å få snevret inn og «skjerpet» klima spådommene.

Dette markerer et stort skritt fremover både i påliteligheten og realismen i forhold til hvordan modeller tolker og forstår aerosoler og skyer sier CLOUD talsmann Jasper Kirkby. Det adresserer den største kilden til usikkerhet knyttet til dagens klimamodeller og vil sørge for at fremtidige spådommer i langt større grad vil bygge på et fast eksperimentelt grunnlag for forståelsen og behandlingen av fundamentale prosesser».

Fritt Nytt 24 mener at det på bakgrunn av tilsendte opplysninger er all mulig grunn til å ta til etterretning at dagens klimaspådommer fra IPCC er bygget på en mangelfull forståelse av den nøkkelfaktoren som er omtalt i denne artikkelen. En datamaskin gjør bare det den blir bedt om å gjøre og dersom data mates inn med mangelfulle sviktende parametre skal man ikke være overrasket over at de svarene som gis er tilsvarende mangelfulle og sviktende i både pålitelighet og realisme.

Kilder
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
https://home.cern/about/updates/2016/10/cloud-experiment-sharpens-climate-predictions

 

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